By
FP Magazine
Country:
Zimbabwe
In
power since: April 18, 1980
Election
in question: March 29, 2008
Why
he’ll go: Zimbabwe’s electoral commission
hasn’t yet released the results of the presidential election,
but it is widely thought that opposition leader Morgan Tsvangirai
of the Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) received more votes
than Mugabe. Tsvangirai insists he is the outright winner and
a second-round runoff vote is not needed.
Why
he won’t: Mugabe is thought to be preparing a campaign
of violence in an effort to stay in power. The government has
already raided the main opposition party, detained foreign
journalists, and evicted more than 60 commercial farmers from
their land. Tsvangirai claims it’s a “de facto
military coup,” with Mugabe rolling out troops across
the country to intimidate people ahead of a possible runoff
election. Analysts think Mugabe is trying to postpone a second
round so that he will have time to regroup and concoct a violent
response. For as even one of Mugabe’s fellow Zanu-PF
party members recognized, a runoff vote would be a “suicide
mission.”
Jeff J. Mitchell/Getty
Pervez Musharraf
Country: Pakistan
In
power since: October 12, 1999
Election
in question: October 2007
Why
he’ll go: In February’s parliamentary elections,
Musharraf’s party was dealt a crushing defeat by the
parties of former prime ministers Nawaz Sharif and the late
Benazir Bhutto. The new Parliament could reinstate the Supreme
Court judges that Musharraf dismissed last November, at a time
when the court was debating the constitutionality of Musharraf’s
controversial October 2007 reelection. A reinstated Supreme
Court might declare Musharraf’s presidency invalid. Additionally,
some analysts and members of the new ruling coalition say Parliament
could likely muster the two-thirds majority needed to impeach
Musharraf, or at least strip him of key powers.
Why
he won’t: The parties of the ruling coalition have
a history of feuding, so they could fail to come together to
impeach Musharraf. Further, the United States, which sees Musharraf
as a key ally in its “War on Terror,” has reportedly
been doing all it can to keep Musharraf as president. A senior
Pakistani official told Pakistani newspaper The Nation that
the United States has been having secret talks with major ruling
politicians about keeping Musharraf in the presidency, saying
that he is willing to accept a reduced role in day-to-day government
matters, but still have a lead role in combating terrorism.
Another official told The Nation, “Had the Bush administration
withdrawn its support, the President would have called it a
day much earlier, most probably after [February’s elections].”
Mario Tama/ Getty
Hugo
Chávez
Country: Venezuela
In
power since: Feb. 2, 1999
Election
in question: 2012
Why
he’ll go: Strictly speaking, Chávez is more
like a dictator wannabe. Last December, after narrowly losing
a referendum that would have allowed him to run for reelection
indefinitely and given him new powers, Chávez said he
would step down in 2013 when his current term expires. The
defeat of the referendum has been regarded as a sign that Venezuelans’ reject
his plans for “21st-century socialism.” Venezuelans’ support
for him appears amid worsening food shortages and violent crime.
In January, graffiti began appearing in the capital that said “Diosdado
Presidente,” indicating support for Diosdado Cabello,
governor of Miranda state, as a new president.
Why
he won’t: A month after losing the referendum, Chávez
told the country’s National Assembly that he was planning
a new referendum for 2010 in which Venezuelans’ would
vote on letting him run for reelection indefinitely. The Venezuelan
newspaper El Universal reported him as saying “I am not
indispensable. But, God willing, and if I have life and health,
I hope to be several years more at the revolution helm. I consider
it necessary despite all the flaws we can have.”
Salah
Malkawi/ Getty
Omar Hassan al-Bashir
Country: Sudan
In
power since: June 30, 1989
Election
in question: 2009
Why
he’ll go: Under the 2005 Comprehensive Peace Agreement,
national elections are to take place no later than July 2009.
The Sudan People’s Liberation Movement (SPLM), the former
rebel group that’s now the main political party in South
Sudan, could defeat Bashir’s National Congress Party
(NCP) in a popular vote, Sudan expert Alex de Waal told the
BBC last year. “The NCP is deeply unpopular,” he
said, noting that the SPLM could receive a reasonable number
of votes in the North to add to its southern votes to win a
majority.
Why
he won’t: The 2009 election may not even happen,
and even if it does, it is unlikely to be free and fair. The
census required for it to take place has already been postponed
three times. Additional factors make elections in Sudan especially
complex: ensuring proper laws are in place regarding political
parties and election procedures, voter registration, civic
education, and training of election monitors, to mention a
few. Then there’s the whole question of Darfur. The area
has been wracked by violence, and large fractions of its population
have been displaced into refugee camps.
Natalia Kolesnikova/Getty
Aleksandr
Lukashenko
Country: Belarus
In power since: July 20, 1994
Election in question: 2011
Why
he’ll go: Lukashenko, widely labeled as “Europe’s
last dictator,” has domestic opponents, and he has received
condemnation from many countries around the world. The United
States enacted the Belarus Democracy Act in 2004, and its measures
include support for Belorussian political parties, nongovernmental
organizations, and independent media.
Why
he won’t: Lukashenko says he wants to stay in the
game. When asked last year whether he wants to run in the next
election, planned for 2011, he responded, “May God help
me to fulfill everything I promised the people. If I do that
and if I remain the same active, healthy man, I will have no
intention of abandoning political activity.” Plus, during
his years in power, he has honed his ability to mastermind
fraudulent elections and stifle any opposition, warning people
who join opposition protests that, “We will wring their
necks, as one might a duck.” In 2006’s presidential
election, his main opponent, Aleksandr Milinkevich, was limited
to distributing fliers that provided a phone number where he
would be available for an hour.
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