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French Presidential election's first round “anyone might win” -Gartman



Petroleumworld 04 18 2017

French Presidential election's first round are this coming Sunday, the 23rd. Every day things have become more confused regarding the chances of the candidates, Dennis Gartman, a well knows U.S. markets analyst wrote yesterday in its daily newsletter The Gartman Letter "things are up for grabs".

"Regarding the French's election for only a few weeks ago it was a foregone conclusion that Ms. Le Pen and Mr. Macron would finish nearly tied with one another and would be 1st and 2nd or 2nd and 1st depending upon the polls cited, and would thus face off against one another in the run-off two weeks later.

However, the very far-left of center candidate, Mr. Melenchon has risen sharply in the polls, and even Mr. Fillon… our preferred candidate who had seen his campaign implode around him following the “Penelope-gate” scandals regarding payments made to his wife, Penelope, for work she apparently did not do…has had his numbers increase to the point where the differences between the top candidate and #4 are now less than 5 points.

Anyone might win. This is really quite surprising

" Election is now one week away and the polls have the race tightening dramatically with Ms. Le Pen and Mr. Macro still leading the field with an average of 23% of the French population supporting either candidate, but with Mr. Fillon and Mr. Melenchon now only 3% points each behind the front runners, with the front runners losing support while the latter two have seen their numbers rise modestly.

However 1/3 of the French votes have not yet decided for whom they shall vote so the race is wholly “up for grabs.”

An Ifop-Fiducial poll has some bad news for Ms. Le Pen noting that 3 of 4 French voters see the National Front as dangerous for democracy and 4 of 5 find the Front to be “racist.”

As an aside, Mr. Melenchon has gone out of his way to prove his far-left-of-centre bona fides by announcing that he wishes to increase the marginal tax rate on the wealthy in France violently, and has proposed a rate of 100% on incomes above €400,000, or approximately $425,000 at the current EUR/US$ exchange rate.

What is disconcerting is that no one in France is laughing at the stupidity of this proposal and many are actually applauding. "

Source: thegartmanletter.com

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petroleumworld.com 04 18 2017

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