Editor´s Mail

Iran and Venezuela: New US Allies?

----- Original Message -----
From: "Scott Sullivan" <scott_sullivan3946@hotmail.com>
To: <editor@petroleumworld.com>
Cc: <aboyd@proveo.org>
Sent: Monday, August 29, 2005 9:32 AM
Subject: Iran and Venezuela: New US Allies?

The Iranian government has expressed satisfaction with the new Iraqi
Constitution and asked for its ratification. This makes Iran's policy
identical to that of the US. The two countries are new allies, with
Venezuela -- Iran's only other ally -- along for the ride.

Regional objections to such a US-Iran alliance, in both the Middle East
and in Latin America with respect to Chavez, will grow. In the Middle East,
many Sunnis will consider the US alliance with Iran to be "strike three" in
terms of Arab normalized relations with the US (strike one being US support
for Israel, and strike 2, US support for the Kurds).

Latin America will also be a problem for the US. US support/passivity in
the face of Chavez expansionism is already putting Ecuador and possibly even
Peru at risk. Just this week the pro-Chavez rebels in Ecuador are
threatening to resume their occupation of Ecuador's oil facillities, citing
"bad faith" on the part of foreign oil companies in implementing an
agreement that halted last week's protests. Meanwhile, the Shining Path has
resurfaced in Peru, claiming credit for nine recent deaths in attacks on
Peruvian government military and civilian personnel.

Here is the problem. A US alliance with Iran implies ties with Venezuela,
which in turn implies ties with the Shining Path, which is certainly
receiving moral support from Chavez, if not more. Such an approach will be
seen as unacceptable by the Latin American states. Moreover, countries like
China would read such a policy as a sign of US weakness and as a potential
threat to their own ties with these countries. China would move in quickly
to shore to its own special relations with Iran and Venezuela and the US
would be in no position to object.


Recommendation:

Adopt a step by step approach with these new alliances. This means testing
Iran first (e.g. on the Middle East peace process, and Leanon), before
moving into partnership with Chavez. And, when dealing with Chavez, test
his policy on Bolivia before giving way to his influence in Ecuador and
Peru. This is the safest course and limits the number of unhappy surprises.

 

---------------

Envíe esta noticia a un amigo

¡Su opinión es importante para nosotros!

Invitamos a todos los lectores a espresar
sus puntos de vista sobre esta noticia o artículo.

Escriba a editor@petroleumworld.com

---

Para preguntas y sugerencias, escriba a :
editor@petroleumworld.com

Para verlo mejor use IE 5.01+
Windows NT 4.0, '95, '98 y ME +/ 800x600 pixels