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Editorial Commentary
VenEconomy: A thorny path
Since the death of FARC leader Raúl Reyes and the seizure of his computer with files revealing the adventures of this narco-terrorist group, Hugo Chávez has had the “laptop of Damocles” hanging over his head.
The full weight of that laptop is apparently about to come crashing down on Chávez when Interpol certifies, this Thursday (May 15), the authenticity of the documents found there and in another computer belonging to FARC member Iván Ríos, who also died.
Last Friday (May 9), the international press -The Wall Street Journal, the Colombian magazine Semana, and the Madrid newspaper El País to name but three- revealed more details of the contents of these computers, astonishing even the most cynical of Venezuelans on account of the apparent closeness of the relations between Hugo Chávez and his Government and the FARC, and also because of their plans, already well advanced, to destabilize the region.
Among the most surprising revelations are that the Venezuelan Government offered to purchase weapons on behalf of the FARC and to get them into Colombia via the port of Maracaibo, and, even more aberrant, that, with the knowledge and approval of Hugo Chávez, it apparently promoted a “discrete, political” arrangement not only to cover up the FARC’s responsibility in the Apure massacre, but also to blame the Colombian paramilitaries for the crime. On September 17, 2004, the FARC murdered a Venezuelan engineer employed by PDVSA and five National Guardsmen in Apure.
Once the authenticity of these documents has been established, the outlook for Chávez and Venezuela looks complicated, to say the least.A Chávez exposed and with his back to the wall could step up his bellicose attitude towards Colombia to the point of becoming a serious threat. Were that to happen, President Álvaro Uribe could decide to take Chavez to the International Criminal Court in The Hague.
Overwhelming evidence of the Venezuelan President’s ties with the FARC and their repercussions for the hemisphere could prompt President George W. Bush to impose strong sanctions on Venezuela. These sanctions could go from suspending US purchases of Venezuelan oil to the freezing of Venezuelan bank accounts in the United States, to forbidding exports to Venezuela, including basic goods and products.
However, analysts are of the view that things will not reach that point, since advisors inside and outside the Unites States are recommending the Bush administration not to take drastic measures against Venezuela unilaterally. In their opinion, such measures could prove counterproductive and damaging for US interests in the region.
The irony of this entire situation, which will have resounding repercussions for Venezuela’s destiny, is that the decisions are no long up to Chávez but depend on his archenemy Bush. Not only that, not even Venezuelans will have any say in what is inevitably about to happen.
VenEconomy is a Venezuela's leading specialized publisher in the economic and financial area. VenEconomy's Points of View on the issues of the day, as seen by VenEconomy during the last week. Petroleumworld does not necessarily share these views.
Editor's Note: This commentary was originally published by VenEconomy , on 05/12/2007. Petroleumworld reprint this article in the interest of our readers.
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Petroleumworld News 05/14/08
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